Ta\u015fma noktalar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\nSon yar\u0131m y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ittifaklar\u0131 da\u011f\u0131lmakta, eski d\u00fczen sona ermektedir. S\u0131rada ne var? B\u00fct\u00fcn devrimci patlamalarda oldu\u011fu gibi burada da ne oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok erken. \u0130\u015fler ta\u015fma noktas\u0131na kadar \u00e7ok yava\u015f geli\u015fir o noktadan sonra her \u015fey \u00f6ylesine ani geli\u015fir ki, takip etmek kolay olmaz.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fkald\u0131r\u0131lar hakk\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131karsama yapman\u0131n anahtar\u0131 verilen halk deste\u011finin geni\u015fli\u011fidir. Tunus\u2019ta ba\u015fkald\u0131ranlar i\u015f\u00e7ilerden ve orta s\u0131n\u0131f \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlardan olu\u015fuyordu. Ancak bunlar\u0131n merkezinde ayr\u0131cal\u0131klar\u0131 ve yetkileri ellerinden al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f e\u011fitimli i\u015fsizler bulunmaktayd\u0131. Yoksul bir kasaba olan Sidi Bouzid\u2019de kendini yakan ve g\u00f6stericilerin sembol\u00fc olan Muhammed Bouazizi kendini sadece i\u015fsizlik ve fakirli\u011fi protesto etmek i\u00e7in yakmad\u0131. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 hakaretler ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lamalar i\u00e7in de yakt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Tunus\u2019ta y\u00fcr\u00fcyen, mar\u015flar s\u00f6yleyen taleplerde bulunan ve uzun y\u0131llardan beri ba\u015flar\u0131nda bulunan diktat\u00f6r\u00fc kovan y\u00fczbinler aras\u0131nda \u00fcniversite diplomalar\u0131n\u0131n kendilerine hi\u00e7bir g\u00fcvence sa\u011flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6ren ve ya\u015famlar\u0131 i\u015fsizlik, imkans\u0131zl\u0131k ve umutsuzlukla kararan binlerce gen\u00e7 erkek ve kad\u0131n yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019daki kat\u0131l\u0131m daha da geni\u015fti. Kahire\u2019nin \u00fcnl\u00fc Tahrir (\u00d6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck) Meydan\u0131’n\u0131 ve caddeleri dolduran y\u00fczbinler sadece M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n varo\u015flar\u0131n en yoksullar\u0131ndan, k\u0131rdan gelen \u00e7if\u00e7ilerden ve k\u00f6yl\u00fclerden olu\u015fmuyordu. Kalabal\u0131klar aras\u0131nda e\u011fitimli, orta s\u0131n\u0131ftan ve hatta zengin kesimlerden gelen onursuzlu\u011fa hay\u0131r diyen, \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck isteyenler de vard\u0131. Talepleri netti: Sadece reformlar de\u011fil, sadece yeni se\u00e7imler de\u011fil, sadece M\u00fcbarek rejiminin y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131yd\u0131<\/p>\n
\u00d6nemli olan bir nokta ise Tunus\u2019ta ve \u00f6zellikle M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da yap\u0131lmayan taleplerin tespitidir. ABD kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 talepler yap\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f, ne ABD bayra\u011f\u0131 yak\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ne de ABD el\u00e7iliklerine do\u011fru y\u00fcr\u00fcy\u00fc\u015fler yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Hatta M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail i\u015fgalinde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k i\u015fbirli\u011fi -\u00f6zellikle Gazze\u2019ye uygulanan abluka- hi\u00e7 g\u00fcndeme gelmemi\u015ftir. Oysa insanlar ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6fkeliydiler. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc biliyorlard\u0131 ki, ABD y\u0131llardan beri M\u00fcbarek\u2019e silah yard\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131yor ve o silahlardan baz\u0131lar\u0131 protestocular\u0131 \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcyordu. Kullan\u0131lan gaz bombalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde \u201cABD mal\u0131- Jonestown\/PA\u201d yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcm medya taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. T\u00fcm bunlara kar\u015f\u0131n talepler yerel ve i\u00e7 politikaya d\u00f6n\u00fck nitelikteydi ve \u00fclkenin y\u00f6netim yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesini hedefliyordu. D\u0131\u015f politikaya s\u0131ra sonra gelecekti.<\/p>\n
Protestoya gelen destek de \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. Tunus\u2019ta polis ikiye ayr\u0131ld\u0131. Baz\u0131lar\u0131 bir s\u00fcre h\u00fck\u00fcmeti desteklerken, baz\u0131lar\u0131 da ellerinde \u00e7i\u00e7ek ta\u015f\u0131yan protestocular\u0131n \u00fczerine ate\u015f a\u00e7may\u0131 ve \u015fiddet uygulamay\u0131 reddettiler. Di\u011fer \u00fclkeler ve M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019dakinin tersine Tunus Ordusu, en \u00fcst r\u00fctbelerdekiler de dahil olmak \u00fczere, tarafs\u0131z kalarak diktat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc desteklemeyi kabul etmedi. Tam tersine \u00fcst r\u00fctbeli bir subay protestocular\u0131n Abidin Bin Ali\u2019nin istifas\u0131 konusundaki talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bi\u00e7imde seslendirdi.<\/p>\n
M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da ise \u00e7ok nefret edilen g\u00fcvenlik polisi M\u00fcbarek\u2019i destekledi. \u0130\u00e7i\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk ba\u015flarda geni\u015flemeye ba\u015flayan protestolar\u0131 bast\u0131rmaya yeltendi, \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00f6ld\u00fcrme olay\u0131na kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 halde sokakta hakimiyeti ele ge\u00e7iremedi. Ordu ise tam aksine halk hareketine kar\u015f\u0131 koymay\u0131 ezici bir \u00e7o\u011funlukla reddetti. Her ne kadar M\u0131s\u0131r ordusunun \u00fcst r\u00fctbelileri imtiyazl\u0131 ve M\u00fcbarek\u2019e yak\u0131n bir grup olu\u015ftursa da \u00e7o\u011fu yoksul kesimden gelen ordu mensuplar\u0131 t\u00fcfeklerini kendi yurtta\u015flar\u0131na \u00e7evirmeyi istemediler. Ba\u015fkald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde askerler, tank s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcleri hatta subaylar sokaklardaki halkla birlikte olduklar\u0131n\u0131 gururla a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor ve protestocular da onlara \u00e7i\u00e7ekler ve tatl\u0131lar ikram ederek \u201cHo\u015fgeldiniz\u201d diyorlard\u0131.<\/p>\n
1979 dan bu yana Wa\u015fhington\u2019un M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019a yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.5 milyar dolar askeri yard\u0131ma ra\u011fmen M\u00fcbarek rejimi halk isyan\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 askeri kullanamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Tunus ve M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019daki protestocular toplumlar\u0131nda esasl\u0131\/temel de\u011fi\u015fimler istiyorlar. Bunlar sadece ekonomik talepler de\u011fil. Yolsuzluklar\u0131n sona ermesi, istihdam olanaklar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, e\u011fitim ve sa\u011fl\u0131k hizmetleri gibi ya\u015famsal talepler de var. G\u00fcndemde siyasi tutsaklar\u0131n sal\u0131verilmesi, toplant\u0131 ve g\u00f6steri hakk\u0131 gibi insan haklar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik talepler de var. M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olup ayn\u0131 zamanda da \u00e7ok temkinli olan M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler de her ne kadar 28 Ocak\u2019ta sokaklara inmi\u015fse de g\u00f6stericilerin t\u00fcm\u00fc \u0130slami dincilerden olu\u015fmuyor. B\u00f6lgede, \u00f6zellikle M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da, al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda liderlik rol\u00fcn\u00fc oynayanlar sosyal medyada ve payla\u015f\u0131m sitelerinde \u00e7ok becerikli olan gen\u00e7ler olmakta ve bu gen\u00e7ler 1987\u2019de intifadada ya da Filistin ayaklanmas\u0131nda ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7eken gen\u00e7leri an\u0131msatmakta. Geni\u015f bir muhalefet koalisyonunda kendilerinden daha deneyimli ve ya\u015fl\u0131 olan liderlerle birlikte davranan bu gen\u00e7ler, ya\u015fl\u0131 ve deneyimli liderlerden b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sayg\u0131 g\u00f6rmektedirler.<\/p>\n
Kitleler nesiller boyu s\u00fcren diktat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn sona ermesi, halk\u0131n iktidar oldu\u011fu yeni bir demokrasi \u00e7a\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in seferber olmu\u015ftur. Sadece se\u00e7imlerin yenilenmesini de\u011fil kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 bir demokrasi talep edilmektedir ki, bu da ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgeyi kontrol etmesini oldul\u00e7a zorla\u015ft\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Benzerlikler<\/strong><\/p>\nM\u0131s\u0131\u2019daki protestolar 1986\u2019da Filipinler diktat\u00f6r\u00fc Ferdinad Marcos\u2019un iktidardan at\u0131lmas\u0131na benzemektedir. M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019daki ayaklanma ile 1978-1979 da \u0130ran\u2019daki \u015eah aleyhtar\u0131 hareketler aras\u0131nda ise temel farkl\u0131l\u0131klar vard\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019daki kitlesel hareket i\u00e7inde birbirleriyle rekabet eden, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fan sosyal gruplar, farkl\u0131 politik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fleri savunan ki\u015fi ve kurulu\u015flar yer alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ortado\u011fu’da ya\u015fananlarla 1980\u2019lerin sonunda Latin Amerika\u2019da, Brezilya, Arjantin, Uruguay ve di\u011ferlerindeki gibi ABD destekli diktat\u00f6rl\u00fckleri ala\u015fa\u011f\u0131 eden hareketler aras\u0131nda benzerlikler\/paralellikler kurulabilir. Latin Amerika\u2019da demokrasi i\u00e7in verilen uzun s\u00fcreli m\u00fccadelede \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc i\u015f\u00e7i sendikalar\u0131, sol partiler ve ilerici toplumsal hareketlerin meydana getirdi\u011fi koalisyonlar y\u00fcr\u00fctm\u00fc\u015flerdir. Brezilya\u2019ya bakarsak, \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi’nin y\u00fckseli\u015fi ile birlikte, toplumsal hareket \u00f6nce askeri diktat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sonland\u0131rm\u0131\u015f, sonra daha da zorlu olan bir m\u00fccadeleyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. O m\u00fccadele g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrde sivil olan ancak ABD\u2019ye tam ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131, neoliberal ekonomik modeli uygulayarak yoksullar\u0131 mahveden h\u00fck\u00fcmete kar\u015f\u0131 verilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Latin Amerika’daki sosyal g\u00fc\u00e7lerin tam muadilleri Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda mevcut de\u011fildir. Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndaki sosyal g\u00fc\u00e7ler (cami \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmeleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda) y\u0131llarca bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutulmu\u015f ve birle\u015fik hale gelememi\u015ftir.Wa\u015fington\u2019un arka bah\u00e7esi Latin Amerika\u2019da askeri dikta\u00f6rl\u00fcklerin y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131ndan hemen sonra demokrasi bir \u00e7\u0131rp\u0131da y\u00fckselememi\u015ftir. Ancak o devasa Latin Amerika blo\u011funda halk hareketleri geli\u015ftik\u00e7e, ABD bir zamanlar egemen oldu\u011fu stratejik b\u00f6lgede kontrol\u00fc kaybetmi\u015ftir. Ortak noktalar\u0131 sol ve ilerici olan mekez solun her renkteki h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri Brezilya, \u015eili, Arjantin, Bolivya, Uruguay, Paraguay ve di\u011ferlerinde iktidara geldik\u00e7e ABD imparatorlu\u011fu b\u00f6lgede yenilgiye u\u011fram\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Belki de bu model \u015fimdi Tunus \/ M\u0131s\u0131r modeli etraf\u0131nda birle\u015fmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in benzer bir model olabilir.<\/p>\n
Tunus: Mevcut yap\u0131 ve muhalefet<\/strong><\/p>\nTunus\u2019ta sokaklar\u0131 i\u015fgal eden g\u00f6stericiler, polisin ve de \u00f6zellikle askerin sokaklar\u0131 diktat\u00f6rl\u00fck ad\u0131na temizlemedeki hareketsizli\u011fi \/ isteksizli\u011fi Bin Ali\u2019nin ABD deste\u011finde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 23 y\u0131ll\u0131k vah\u015fi ve \u00e7\u00fcr\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f h\u00fck\u00fcmdarl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ala\u015fa\u011f\u0131 etmi\u015ftir. Tunuslular\u0131 sokaklara d\u00f6ken muhalefet birle\u015fik, disiplinli hiyerar\u015fik olarak \u00f6rg\u00fctlenmi\u015f unsurlardan de\u011fil; anar\u015fik, k\u0131smen kendili\u011finden (spontaneous) ve gerek politik gerekse co\u011frafik olarak farkl\u0131 olan ancak twitter arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla parlak bi\u00e7imde organize olan unsurlardan olu\u015fmu\u015ftur. Tunus\u2019un \u00e7ok \u00f6nceleri s\u00fcrg\u00fcne zorlanan \u0130slamc\u0131 muhalefet liderleri protestolara kat\u0131lmak \u00fczere \u00fclkeye d\u00f6nmeye haz\u0131r gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmekteyseler de, t\u0131pk\u0131 M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019daki muadilleri gibi, iktidar\u0131 almaya yana\u015fmamaktad\u0131rlar. Bu devrim dini veya mezhepsel bir devrim de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle ilgin\u00e7 olan bir \u015fey de zafer kazanan muhalefetin uluslararas\u0131 destek olarak mali, askeri ve hatta diplomatik olarak hi\u00e7bir talepte bulunmamas\u0131 olmu\u015ftur. Muhalefet sadece yasal destek talep etmi\u015ftir. Bu meyanda muhalefet halka kar\u015f\u0131 i\u015flenen su\u00e7lar i\u00e7in eski diktat\u00f6r ve ailesi i\u00e7in \u0130nterpol\u2019den yakalama emri \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131n\u0131 talep etmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6ylece, b\u00fct\u00fcn beklentilerin ve olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n tersine Tunus g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz Ortado\u011fusunda devrim \u00e7\u0131\u011fr\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ancak Tunus k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir \u00fclke olup, petrol \u00fcretiminde d\u00fcnyada 69.luk gibi \u00f6nemsiz bir yere sahiptir. Bin Ali tutuklu sorgulamalar\u0131 i\u00e7in hava sahas\u0131n\u0131 transit u\u00e7u\u015flar i\u00e7in ABD\u2019ye a\u00e7arak ABD\u2019ye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmu\u015ftur, ancak ikincil derecede stratejik \u00f6neme haiz oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin Tunus\u2019ta bir \u00fcss\u00fc bulunmamaktad\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden Ba\u015fkan Obama yapaca\u011f\u0131 \u201culusa sesleni\u015f\u201d konu\u015fmas\u0131nda kolayl\u0131kla \u201cABD Tunus halk\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131ndad\u0131r\u201d diyebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak bu konuda M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n durumu farkl\u0131d\u0131r. Bu durumda Obama\u2019n\u0131n konu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n sonuna ekledi\u011fi \u201cABD halklar\u0131n demokratik emellerini\/arzular\u0131n\u0131 destekler\u201d ibaresi \u00e7ok manidard\u0131r.<\/p>\n
M\u0131s\u0131r: Mevcut yap\u0131 ve muhalefet<\/strong><\/p>\nE\u011fer M\u0131s\u0131r halk\u0131 -ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc birlikteli\u011fini muhafaza ederek- sadece yeni se\u00e7imden ibaret olmayan yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fim ve ger\u00e7ek kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 demokrasi m\u00fccadelesinden galip \u00e7\u0131karsa Wa\u015fington\u2019un bu en \u00f6nemli m\u00fcttefikini kontrol etmesi son derece g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015fecektir. M\u00fcbarek\u2019in ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in kadim dostu \u00d6mer S\u00fcleyman\u2019\u0131 kendisine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olarak atamas\u0131 Beyaz Saray\u2019da sevince yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015fken, bu atama Kahire sokaklar\u0131nda yuhalamalarla kar\u015f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. M\u0131s\u0131r istibarat\u0131nda y\u0131llar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7iren \u00d6mer S\u00fcleyman ayn\u0131 zamanda uluslaras\u0131 platformun \u00f6nemli akt\u00f6rlerinden birisidir. Rejimin bask\u0131 ve i\u015fkence ayg\u0131tlar\u0131nda fazla \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kmamakla birlikte, M\u00fcbarek\u2019in en yak\u0131n yard\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131ndan birisi olarak bilinir. Onun atanmas\u0131 M\u00fcbarek rejiminin sona ermesi konusunda hi\u00e7 kimseyi ikna edemeyecektir.<\/p>\n
Bu an itibariyle sokaklar M\u0131s\u0131r halk\u0131n\u0131nd\u0131r. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc simgesel anlar yo\u011fun ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ya\u015fanmaya devam etmektedir. 28 Ocak Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Kahire\u2019yi birle\u015ftiren muazzam 6 Ekim K\u00f6pr\u00fcs\u00fc’nde bir adet z\u0131rhl\u0131 personel ta\u015f\u0131ma arac\u0131 protestocular\u0131 da\u011f\u0131tmak \u00fczere hareket etti. Kalabal\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00fczerine do\u011fru gitti, ancak insanlar arac\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde topland\u0131lar ve arac\u0131 durmaya zorlad\u0131lar. Ara\u00e7 ya duracak ya da insanlar\u0131n i\u00e7ine dalacakt\u0131. \u0130kisi de olmad\u0131. Tanka benzeyen ara\u00e7 d\u00f6n\u00fcp k\u00f6pr\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fcst\u00fcnden son s\u00fcratle geri giderken b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bo\u015fluk y\u00fczlerce g\u00f6sterici taraf\u0131ndan dolduruldu. Tamamen farkl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015f olsa bile bu g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc 1965 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki Alabama\u2019n\u0131n Selma kentindeki Edmund Pettus K\u00f6pr\u00fcs\u00fc \u00fczerinde polisle \u015fiddet i\u00e7ermeyen insan haklar\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fcy\u00fc\u015f\u00e7\u00fclerinin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelmelerini an\u0131msatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019daki protestolardaki \u015fiddet kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve kat\u0131l\u0131m ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc idi. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc m\u00fcezzinler Kahire camilerinin minarelerinden ezan okuduk\u00e7a binlerce g\u00f6sterici caddelerde saf tutup, namaz k\u0131ld\u0131. Binlercesi de namaz k\u0131lmad\u0131. G\u00f6steriler dinsel ama\u00e7l\u0131 de\u011fildi ve kalabal\u0131k sadece dincilerden olu\u015fmuyordu. Dinciler ne liderlik yap\u0131yor ne de kalabal\u0131klar\u0131 kontrol ediyorlard\u0131. Stratejik kanal\u0131n oldu\u011fu \u015e\u00fcvey\u015f kentinde Cuma g\u00f6sterilerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fc\u00e7lerine ek olarak g\u00f6nderilen 4 bin polis hi\u00e7bir \u015fey yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, baz\u0131lar\u0131 da g\u00f6stericilerin saf\u0131na ge\u00e7ti. 1967 Sava\u015f\u0131’nda \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan i\u015fgal edilmesi ile bilinen tek bir karakol o g\u00fcn g\u00f6stericilerin hedefi oldu. \u0130skenderiye\u2019de de polis b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc ve \u00e7o\u011fulukla g\u00f6stericilerin saf\u0131na ge\u00e7tikleri i\u00e7in de sokaklar\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almakta ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z kald\u0131lar.<\/p>\n
Ya\u011fma da meydana geldi, ancak halk mahallelerde muhaf\u0131zlar ve kontrol noktalar\u0131 olu\u015fturarak, bazen de kendi adaletini uygulayarak ya\u011fmaya kar\u015f\u0131 koydu. Yakalanan baz\u0131 ya\u011fmac\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fczerinden h\u00fck\u00fcmet mal\u0131 silahlar ve kimlikler \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Rejim taraf\u0131ndan bir korku kampanyas\u0131 ba\u015flat\u0131larak kanunsuzluk ve kaosa kar\u015f\u0131 tek g\u00fcvencenin M\u00fcbarek\u2019in polisleri oldu\u011fu yay\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ancak gelinen noktada cesaret korkuyu yendi.<\/p>\n
Belirsiz bir ili\u015fki: M\u0131s\u0131r ve \u0130srail<\/strong><\/p>\n30 y\u0131ldan fazla bir s\u00fcredir ABD taraf\u0131ndan orkestra \u015fefli\u011finin y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc M\u0131s\u0131r ve \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkinin M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da meydana gelen bu de\u011fi\u015fimden nas\u0131l etkilenece\u011fi \u00f6nemli belirsizliklerden biri olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. 1979 daki Camp David Bar\u0131\u015f Anla\u015fmas\u0131’n\u0131 imzalayan ilk Arap devleti olan M\u0131s\u0131r ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin n\u00fcvesini ve \u0130srail\u2019in g\u00fcvenlik doktrininin ana temas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz M\u00fcbarek rejiminin y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 \u0130srail yetkililerini deh\u015fete d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmektedir. Bu durum \u0130srail\u2019in eski M\u0131s\u0131r B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7isi taraf\u0131ndan \u015f\u00f6yle ifade edilmektedir: \u201cKendini bar\u0131\u015fa adayan insanlar sadece M\u00fcbarek\u2019in yak\u0131n \u00e7evresinde olanlard\u0131r. E\u011fer bunlardan biri ba\u015fkan olamazsa ba\u015f\u0131m\u0131z \u00e7ok a\u011fr\u0131yacakt\u0131r\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u0130srail ve M\u0131s\u0131r h\u00fck\u00fcmetleri aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkinin devam\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmas\u0131n\u0131 z\u0131mnen M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da demokratik sorumlulu\u011fun olmamas\u0131na ba\u011flayan Ba\u015fbakan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Silvan Shalom \u015f\u00f6yle devam etmektedir: \u201c\u0130srail\u2019in kom\u015fular\u0131ndaki rejimler e\u011fer demokratik sistemlere d\u00f6nerse, bu durum \u0130srail ulusal g\u00fcvenli\u011fini ciddi bi\u00e7imde tehdit eder\u201d. Ve \u0130srail ABD veya di\u011fer devletlerin M\u00fcbarek\u2019i destekleme konusunda tav\u0131r de\u011fi\u015ftirmeleri olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan ho\u015fnut de\u011fildir. 31 Ocak tarihli Ha\u2019aretz Gazetesinin man\u015feti \u015f\u00f6yledir: \u201cM\u0131s\u0131r\u2019daki huzursuzluk konusunda \u0130srail d\u00fcnyay\u0131 M\u00fcbarek\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131lan ele\u015ftirilerin dozunu azaltmaya davet eder\u201d.<\/p>\n
Ancak iki \u015fey \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Birincisi, g\u00f6stericilerin talepleri daha \u00e7ok M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n -\u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck, insan haklar\u0131, ekonomi gibi- i\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131yla ilgilidir ve M\u00fcbarek diktat\u00f6rl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn sona ermesini bu talepler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde istemektedirler. Her ne kadar sokaktaki insanlar\u0131n ezici bir \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu Gazze\u2019nin \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan i\u015fgali konusunda M\u00fcbarek\u2019in y\u0131llarca i\u015fbirli\u011fi yapmas\u0131ndan ho\u015fnut de\u011filse de, bu onlar\u0131n en \u00f6ncelikli sorunu de\u011fildir. \u0130kincisi, ba\u015fa ge\u00e7ecek ge\u00e7ici veya kal\u0131c\u0131 hi\u00e7bir h\u00fck\u00fcmetin Camp David Bar\u0131\u015f Anla\u015fmas\u0131’n\u0131 tan\u0131mamazl\u0131k gibi bir ad\u0131m atarak ABD ve \u0130srail’le ili\u015fkileri koparma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 zay\u0131f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Her \u015fey bir yana, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019a ABD taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.5 milyar dolarl\u0131k yard\u0131m\u0131n temelini Camp David olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Hi\u00e7bir yeni M\u0131s\u0131r h\u00fck\u00fcmeti bu paraya -en az\u0131ndan hemen- s\u0131rt\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6nemez.<\/p>\n
Kendi halk\u0131n\u0131n olurunu kazanmak i\u00e7in yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin yapaca\u011f\u0131 ilk i\u015flerden biri insanlar\u0131n ve mallar\u0131n serbest\u00e7e giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in M\u0131s\u0131r ile Gazze \u015eeridi aras\u0131ndaki Refah S\u0131n\u0131r Kap\u0131s\u0131’n\u0131 a\u00e7mak olabilir. Bu ad\u0131m \u0130srail i\u015fgalini ve ablukas\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirmese bile i\u015fgalin ve ablukan\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde oyabilecektir. S\u0131n\u0131r kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte Filistinli \u00f6\u011frenciler yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki okullar\u0131na kavu\u015fabilecekler, hastalar M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da veya ba\u015fka yerlerde sa\u011fl\u0131k hizmeti alabilecek ve son be\u015f y\u0131ld\u0131r 1.5 milyon Filistinli i\u00e7in hapishaneye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen bu darac\u0131k \u015feritten aileler ba\u015fka yerlere gidebileceklerdir. S\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 \u0130srail i\u015fgal politikalar\u0131na Arap devletlerince verilen deste\u011fin sona ermesi yolunda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ad\u0131m olacakt\u0131r. Bu durum \u0130srail\u2019in daha fazla yal\u0131t\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu iddias\u0131yla ABD\u2019den daha fazla askeri yard\u0131m talep etmesi ve Gazze\u2019ye veya L\u00fcbnan\u2019a yeni sald\u0131rlar d\u00fczenlemek hatta \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 vurmak gibi b\u00f6lgede daha sald\u0131rgan bir pozisyon almas\u0131 tehlikeleri de beraberinde getirecek ve \u0130srail art\u0131k ABD destekli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri reddedecektir.<\/p>\n
Ancak, uluslaras\u0131 hukuku ve insan haklar\u0131n\u0131 temel almad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z bi\u00e7imde s\u00fcregelen bu \u201cbar\u0131\u015f sa\u011flama g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri\u201d kand\u0131rmacas\u0131n\u0131n sona ermesi de bir bak\u0131ma yararl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. B\u00f6yle bir durumda ABD\u2019nin daha fazla militarize olmu\u015f bir \u0130srail\u2019i ba\u011fr\u0131na basmas\u0131 durabilecektir. Bunun sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD halk\u0131n\u0131n yo\u011fun bir e\u011fitime ve hareketlili\u011fe ihtiyac\u0131 vard\u0131r. ABD silahlar\u0131ndan ve deste\u011finden yararlanan Arap diktat\u00f6rlerin yok oldu\u011fu yeni bir Ortado\u011fu\u2019da uluslararas\u0131 hukuku ve insan haklar\u0131n\u0131 temel alan adil bir bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in yeni imkanlar olu\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Washington\u2019un kar\u0131\/zarar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\nM\u00fcbarek\u2019in y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 ve M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da -hepimizin umut etti\u011fi gibi- tamamen demokratik ve halka dayal\u0131 yeni bir h\u00fck\u00fcmetin olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2018ye getirisi\/g\u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fcs\u00fc fazla olacakt\u0131r. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte, \u0130srail ili\u015fkileri bir yana, geri kalan Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n ABD taraftar\u0131 olarak kalmas\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck Arap \u00fclkesi olan M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019a ihtiya\u00e7 duymu\u015ftur. 1991 Saddam H\u00fcseyin\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 bir Arap koalisyonuna ABD\u2019nin \u00e7ok ihtiyac\u0131 oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemde anahtar M\u0131s\u0131r olmu\u015ftu. Geni\u015f kamuoyu muhalefetine kar\u015f\u0131n M\u00fcbarek\u2019in onay\u0131yla Irak\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 olan bir Arap koalisyonu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti (Bu koalisyonun olu\u015fmas\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 50\u2019sini silmesinin ku\u015fkusuz b\u00fcy\u00fck pay\u0131 olmu\u015ftur).<\/p>\n
Soru \u015fimdi neyin de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fidir? ABD, ger\u00e7ekten ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki Arap m\u00fcttefikleri ABD hegemonyas\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutmaya bir tehlike yarataca\u011f\u0131ndan korkmakta m\u0131d\u0131r? ABD\u2019nin M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da askeri \u00fcsleri vard\u0131r, ABD S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in para \u00f6demektedir ve s\u00f6zde \u201cter\u00f6re kar\u015f\u0131 k\u00fcresel sava\u015fta\u201d M\u0131s\u0131r ABD\u2019ye tuttuklular\u0131 her yolu kullanarak sorgulama garantisi vermi\u015ftir. \u015eimdi ne farkl\u0131la\u015fabilir?<\/p>\n
So\u011fuk Sava\u015f s\u0131ras\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin korkusu m\u00fcttefik olmayan bir M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n Sovyet kamp\u0131na kat\u0131labilece\u011fiydi. O durumda ABD stratejisi M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131 Sovyet kamp\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tutmakt\u0131. 1956’da \u0130srail, Fransa ve \u0130ngiltere S\u00fcvey\u015f Kanal\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kontrolu i\u00e7in M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 bir kampanya ba\u015flatt\u0131klar\u0131nda ABD M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019dan yana saf tutmu\u015f ve Kahire\u2019de ayr\u0131cal\u0131kl\u0131 bir konuma gelmi\u015fti. Fakat ABD M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131 tam ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131zlar ve Arap ulusal cephesinden kopararak kendi y\u00f6r\u00fcngesine oturtmay\u0131 ancak 1970 Ba\u015fkan Cemal Abd\u00fclnas\u0131r\u2019\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden sonra ba\u015fa ge\u00e7en Enver Sedat d\u00f6neminde ba\u015farabilmi\u015ftir. 1979\u2019da Ba\u015fkan Jimmy Carter\u2019\u0131n Sedat ve \u0130srail Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Menahem Begin aras\u0131nda Camp David anla\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini ba\u015flatmas\u0131yla M\u0131s\u0131r Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda yanl\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa itildi. Sonu\u00e7 olarak Sedat 1981’de \u00f6ld\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. O g\u00fcnden bu yana iktidar M\u00fcbarek\u2019in oldu.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer Arap y\u00f6neticileri hemen m\u00fcdahale ettiler. Suudi Kral\u0131 Abdullah ve \u00dcrd\u00fcn Kral\u0131 II. Abdullah M\u00fcbarek\u2019in yan\u0131nda yer ald\u0131. Abdullah protestolar\u0131 \u201clanetledi\u201d, II. Abdullah ise telefon ederek \u201cg\u00fcven\u201d verdi. El Cezire resmi Filistin medyas\u0131na dayanarak Ba\u015fkan Mahmut Abbas\u2019\u0131n M\u00fcbarek\u2019e telefon ederek \u201cM\u0131s\u0131r\u2019la dayan\u0131\u015fma i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu teyit etti\u011fini ve kendisini M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fine ve istikrar\u0131na adad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d duyurdu. Terc\u00fcme edersek burada kullan\u0131lan \u201cM\u0131s\u0131r\u201d kelimesi \u201cM\u00fcbarek rejimi\u201d anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Human Rights Watch\u2019\u0131n bildirdi\u011fine g\u00f6re 29 Ocak g\u00fcn\u00fc Ramallah\u2019ta yap\u0131lan M\u0131s\u0131r halk\u0131yla dayan\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6sterisi Abbas\u2019\u0131n polis g\u00fc\u00e7lerince da\u011f\u0131t\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda acaba Obama y\u00f6netimi uzun y\u0131llardan beri en yak\u0131n m\u00fcttefikinde olanlar\u0131 anlayabiliyor mu, Washington\u2019un olaylar\u0131 kontrol etmek bir yana etkileme yetene\u011finin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 tayin edebiyor mu? Yoksa 1978\u2019de \u0130ran \u015eah\u0131’n\u0131n tahttan at\u0131lmas\u0131ndan sadece aylar \u00f6nce Carter\u2019\u0131n \u201cistikrar adas\u0131\u201d olarak kutlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015eah\u2019\u0131n \u015ferefine kadeh kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi mi oluyor?<\/p>\n
Obama y\u00f6netimi yetkilileri o kadar da \u201ck\u00f6r ve sa\u011f\u0131r\u201d gibi davranm\u0131yorlar. En az\u0131ndan s\u00f6ylemsel d\u00fczeyde zaten yeni bir Ortado\u011fu ile y\u00fcz y\u00fcze olundu\u011fu ifade ediliyor. 26 Ocak\u2019ta Obama \u201cM\u0131s\u0131r halk\u0131n\u0131n emellerine duyarl\u0131 olan bir h\u00fck\u00fcmete\u201d olan deste\u011fini ifade etti. D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Hillary Clinton da M\u00fcbarek\u2019in yeni bir yard\u0131mc\u0131 ve ba\u015fbakan atamas\u0131n\u0131n M\u0131s\u0131r halk\u0131n\u0131n isteklerine tam cevap vermedi\u011fini belirterek \u201cde\u011fi\u015fiklerin halk\u0131n me\u015fru taleplerini kar\u015f\u0131lamas\u0131\u201d \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. M\u00fcbarek rejimini veya onun ba\u015fka bir versiyonu olan \u201cistikrar\u0131\u201d savunman\u0131n art\u0131k ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcndeminde tek mesele olmaktan \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. Ancak yine de Obama y\u00f6netimi her \u015feyi tam yapam\u0131yor. Clinton\u2019un s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc P. J. Crowley, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019a her y\u0131l verilen muazzam miktardaki askeri yard\u0131m\u0131 \u201cg\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irdi\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6ylerken Washington\u2019un yard\u0131m\u0131 kesmeye, kesecekse nas\u0131l kesece\u011fine karar verece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemedi. Hem Obama, hem Clinton s\u00fcrekli olarak \u201cd\u00fczg\u00fcn bir ge\u00e7i\u015fin\u201d alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyorlar. Onlara g\u00f6re sokaklarda olup biten ne olursa olsun \u201cd\u00fczenli\u201d olsun. Oysa onlar de\u011fi\u015fimin kendi kurallar\u0131 i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc kabul etmiyor.<\/p>\n
Clinton ABD\u2019nin \u201cdemokrasiye gitmeyen herhangi bir el de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyi\u201d kabul etmeyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k bir bi\u00e7imde ifade etti. Ve M\u00fcsl\u00fcman Karde\u015fler’e de a\u00e7\u0131k bir g\u00f6nderme yaparak \u201cyeni h\u00fck\u00fcmette bask\u0131c\u0131 unsurlar\u0131n k\u00f6k salmalar\u0131n\u0131n istenmedi\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi. Birisi \u015funu merak edebilir: Ba\u015fkan Obama ve D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Clinton ABD\u2019nin -hakk\u0131 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir yana-, neyin \u201cd\u00fczenli\u201d oldu\u011funa karar vercek g\u00fc\u00e7te oldu\u011funa acaba ger\u00e7ekten inan\u0131yorlar m\u0131? Geli\u015fmelerin hangi mecraya -ABD tipi veya M\u0131s\u0131r tipi demokrasiye- d\u00f6k\u00fclece\u011fine veya M\u00fcbarek sonras\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetlere kimlerin kat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na karar verici olarak ABD ger\u00e7ekten kendisini mi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor?<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn Clinton, M\u00fcbarek ve e\u015fi Suzan M\u00fcbarek\u2019ten \u201cki\u015fisel dostlar\u0131m\u201d diye s\u00f6z etti. Acaba bu M\u00fcbarek\u2019lere ABD\u2019nin siyasi s\u0131\u011f\u0131nma sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir ipucumuydu? Pinochet \u00f6rne\u011finde evrensel yarg\u0131n\u0131n devreye girdi\u011fi ve tutuklama emirlerinin \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, ABD bu t\u00fcr korumay\u0131 nas\u0131l sa\u011flayabilecektir?<\/p>\n
Umut<\/strong><\/p>\nPek tabii ki b\u00fct\u00fcn bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceler\/varsay\u0131mlar \u00e7abucak de\u011fi\u015febilir. Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 eski Uluslararas\u0131 Atom Enerjisi Ajans\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131, Nobel \u00f6d\u00fcll\u00fc Muhammed El Baraday\u2019\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 De\u011fi\u015fim \u0130\u00e7in Ulusal Koalisyon ad\u0131 verilen geni\u015f muhalefet cephesi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde ortaya at\u0131lacak \u00f6zel \u00f6nerilerle Washington\u2019un elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirici sonu\u00e7lar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilir. E\u011fer Obama y\u00f6netimi M\u00fcbarek rejimine yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 mali yard\u0131m\u0131 kesti\u011fini ilan eder ve krizi \u00e7\u00f6zme yolunda M\u0131s\u0131rl\u0131lar\u0131n kendi aralar\u0131nda yapacaklar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere sayg\u0131 duyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klarsa ge\u00e7ici bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7in M\u00fcbarek ve muhalifleri aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler hemen ba\u015flayabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD Ortado\u011fu\u2019da Beyaz Saray ve Pentagon stratejistlerinin tahminlerinin de \u00f6tesinde bir stratejik meydan okumayla y\u00fcz y\u00fczedir. Petrol, \u0130srail ve ABD versiyonlu \u201cistikrar\u201d gibi mecburiyetler nedeniyle Washington\u2019un b\u00f6lgeyi denetimi alt\u0131na ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131llar art\u0131k bitmi\u015ftir. Yal\u0131n bi\u00e7imde ifade edilirse bir olas\u0131l\u0131k olarak ABD kaybedecek ve imparatorlu\u011fundan bir par\u00e7a daha kopacakt\u0131r. ABD destekli askeri diktat\u00f6rl\u00fcklerin ABD destekli sivil versiyonlara evrildi\u011fi, \u201cserbest ticaret\u201d anla\u015fmalar\u0131 yapmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen daha fazla temel haklar talep eden \u00f6rg\u00fctl\u00fc toplumsal hareketler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda Latin Amerika\u2019da kaybeden ABD, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da da etkinli\u011fini kaybedebilecektir.<\/p>\n
Ancak bir ba\u015fka olas\u0131l\u0131k da Washington\u2019un de\u011fil ama ABD halk\u0131n\u0131n etkinlik ve g\u00fcvenirlili\u011finin d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda artabilece\u011fidir. Bunun i\u00e7in \u201cyeni Ortado\u011fu stratejisinden\u201d daha fazla \u015fey gerekmektedir. Bunun anlam\u0131 ise ku\u015faklardan beri beri ABD\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f politikalar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendiren \u201cstateji\u201d ve \u201cstartejik \u00e7\u0131karlar\u201d\u0131n tan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden d\u00fczenlenmesidir. E\u011fer Obama y\u00f6netimi tamamen farkl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131mla k\u00fcresel e\u015fitlik ve enternasyonalizm temelinde ger\u00e7ek taahh\u00fctlerde bulunur, uluslararas\u0131 hukuka ve di\u011fer \u00fclkere sayg\u0131l\u0131 davran\u0131rsa, geleceklerini belirlemeyi sadece h\u00fck\u00fcmetlere de\u011fil, insanlara da b\u0131rakan yepyeni bir insan haklar\u0131 kavram\u0131 ile ortaya \u00e7\u0131karsa, \u201cyeni Ortado\u011fu stratejisinin\u201d neleri m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 var\u0131n hayal edin. ABD imparatorlu\u011fu Ortado\u011fu\u2019da \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fcyor olabilir. Ancak bu ABD halk\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6kmesini gerektirmez.<\/p>\n
Washington b\u00f6lgede zaten muazzam bir g\u00fc\u00e7 ve etkinlik kayb\u0131na u\u011fram\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Meslekta\u015f\u0131m ve b\u00f6lge uzman\u0131 olan Joshua landis\u2019in yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi \u201cBush demokrasi dedi i\u00e7sava\u015f ve diktat\u00f6rleri getirdi, belki de Obama Ortado\u011fu’da diktat\u00f6rlerin y\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131na izin veren ve demokrasi kumar\u0131 oynayan bir ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak hat\u0131rlan\u0131r. Bu da k\u00f6t\u00fc bir miras say\u0131lmaz.<\/p>\n
1 \u015eubat 2011 tarihli Foreign Policy in Focus’tan \u00e7evrilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Kaynak: Al\u0131nteri.org<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130mparatorluklar b\u00f6yle mi sona erer: \u0130nsanlar sel olup caddelerde akar, liderlere istifa \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131r ve yerel diktat\u00f6rler \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmaya zorlan\u0131r? Belki hepsi b\u00f6yle olmaz ama yayg\u0131nla\u015fan protestolar\u0131n \u00e7ap\u0131 ve derinli\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ABD destekli h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin protestolara son vermedeki \u00e7aresizlikleri ve ABD\u2019nin eski dostlar\u0131n\u0131 korumada h\u0131zla azalan yetene\u011fi durumun Ortado\u011fu\u2019da bir nesil boyu g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen devrimci bir […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[99],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-5022","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-dunya"},"yoast_head":"\n
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\u0130mparatorluklar b\u00f6yle mi sona erer: \u0130nsanlar sel olup caddelerde akar, liderlere istifa \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131r ve yerel diktat\u00f6rler \u00fclke d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmaya zorlan\u0131r? Belki hepsi b\u00f6yle olmaz ama yayg\u0131nla\u015fan protestolar\u0131n \u00e7ap\u0131 ve derinli\u011fi kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ABD destekli h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin protestolara son vermedeki \u00e7aresizlikleri ve ABD\u2019nin eski dostlar\u0131n\u0131 korumada h\u0131zla azalan yetene\u011fi durumun Ortado\u011fu\u2019da bir nesil boyu g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen devrimci bir co\u015fku d\u00fczeyine y\u00fckselmesiyle sonu\u00e7lan\u0131yor. B\u00f6lgede ABD hakimiyeti alt\u0131ndaki h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin me\u015fruiyeti hi\u00e7bir zaman eskisi gibi olamayacak. Kaynak zengini ve stratejik a\u00e7\u0131dan hayati \u00f6nemi olan Ortado\u011fu\u2019ya ABD \u0130mparatorlu\u011funun etkisi tepeden t\u0131rna\u011fa sars\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n